1
Clonmacash
5yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 75
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA72 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA73 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA74 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA74 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |