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Coincidental Glory

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 61

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dundalk nursery winner in December and has been largely consistent without winning this year. Met trouble when down the field at the Curragh 23 days ago but it's worth noting his best efforts have come on polytrack.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 72 · 7f111y Gd 140 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 72 par11/0572OR 72BHA70 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 119 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 70 parBHA67 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 67 · 6f63y Goo 137 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 67 par3/0667OR 67BHA67 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 127 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 66 par19/0666OR 66BHA65 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 65 · 5f180y Goo 129 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 65 · 7f Yie 125 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 65 par27/0765OR 65BHA64 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 27 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 64 · 6f Yie 131 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 64 par29/0864OR 64projClass-projected finish: 8th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA6413th13th0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA644th4th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA659th9th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA652nd2nd0
2026-06-19LimerickBHA663rd3rd0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA676th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0512/0627/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20265th5/174%69%-0.04
23/05/202612th40/10%8%+0.08
03/06/20264th17/255%82%+0.27
12/06/20266th8/158%55%-0.03
19/06/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
11/07/20262nd13/266%93%+0.27
27/07/20269th12/137%43%+0.06
22/08/20264th10/147%88%+0.41
29/08/202613th7/163%33%-0.30