10
Four Blondes
5yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 62
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA68 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA72 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA74 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fairyhouse | BHA78 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 23/07/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 22/09/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 13/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 84% | +0.32 |
| 03/06/2026 | 20th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 81% | +0.54 |