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4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#17

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable sixth of 18 in handicap (8/1) at Cork (1m, soft) 12 days ago, not ideally placed. Back down in trip. Looks competitive on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f Std 143 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 73 par6/0373OR 73BHA72 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 72 · 6f Hvy 135 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 72 parBHA71 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 21 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 141 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 71 par19/0471OR 71BHA70 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 140 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 parBHA68 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 68 · 7f94y Goo 138 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par18/0568OR 68BHA64 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 64 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 64 parC7 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 63 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 63 par15/07C7OR 63BHA63 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m20y Goo 133 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA616th6th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA634th4th0
2026-07-15Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA6410th10th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA689th9th0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA706th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/034/0515/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20268th11/486%30%-0.56
15/03/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
19/04/20267th20/10%70%+0.70
04/05/20266th9/153%64%+0.12
18/05/20269th14/126%43%+0.17
18/06/202610th8/158%40%-0.18
15/07/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
27/08/20264th4/179%75%-0.04
09/09/20266th8/158%71%+0.13