8

Hello Stacia

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 66

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#15

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form in a pair of maidens/claimer around 1m in recent months but her opening handicap mark looks tough.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m50y Gd 12911/07C8C8 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 12925/07C8C7 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 1m Goo 12712/08C7projClass-projected finish: 13th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Gowran Park?9th9th0
2026-07-25Gowran Park?7th7th0
2026-07-11Limerick?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0725/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 11-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength37%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55
25/07/20267th50/10%50%+0.50
12/08/20269th28/10%43%+0.43