5
Irish Rumour
6yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 67
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA59 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA59 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA61 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA62 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA64 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA58 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 69% | +0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 95% | +0.79 |
| 18/06/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 03/08/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |