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6

Nouvel Espoir

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of easing mark when winning at Down Royal in June. Has made the frame all 4 starts since, beaten only a neck when second of 22 in handicap at Cork (6f, soft) 12 days ago. A must for the shortlist under Colin Keane.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA63 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 63 par9/0563OR 63BHA66 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 66 · 5f Yie 121 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 parBHA64 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f180y Goo 125 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 64 par7/0664OR 64BHA63 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Sft 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 61 par19/0661OR 61BHA67 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 67 par18/0767OR 67BHA67 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 67 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 67 parBHA64 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/0964OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA642nd2nd0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA673rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA674th4th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA674th4th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA611st1st0
2026-06-14CorkBHA634th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0514/0618/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20262nd9/153%93%+0.41
16/05/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
07/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
18/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
09/08/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
09/09/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79