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16

Top Biller

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 52

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

First run since leaving Julia & Shelley Birkett when tenth of 19 in handicap (80/1) at the Curragh (6f, good to soft) 23 days ago, merely closing up late. Needs to leave that behind.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 56 · 6f3y Gd 131 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 56 par6/106OR 566 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 53 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 53 par24/026OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 48 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 48 par24/036OR 486 @ Yarmouth 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 48 · 6f3y Gd 129 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 49 · 5f215y Goo 129 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 49 par29/056OR 496 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 49 parBHA60 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 60 · 6f Yie 130 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 60 par29/0860OR 60projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA6010th10th0
2026-06-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-05-29Brighton612th12th0
2026-04-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton611th11th0
2026-03-10Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1010/0329/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th13/266%56%-0.10
24/10/20259th4/179%38%-0.40
24/02/20266th15/261%44%-0.16
10/03/20266th9/276%38%-0.39
24/03/202611th7/163%0%-0.63
28/04/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
29/05/202612th7/163%8%-0.55
18/06/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
29/08/202610th80/10%50%+0.50