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4

Chief Minister

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 69

Ffos Las · Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Nursery · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just fair form at best thus far, latest when eighth of 18 in valuable sales race at Newmarket (6f, good, 125/1) 30 days ago. May do better on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0744 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/0842 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR - · 6f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS22/082projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket28th4th+3
2026-08-05Pontefract45th4th+1
2026-07-18Newbury49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/075/0822/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +23.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
05/08/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
22/08/20268th125/10%59%+0.59