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Harry's Pop

2yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75

Ffos Las · Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Nursery · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

39%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well backed and took advantage of the drop in grade when winning 8-runner nursery at Catterick last month and improved on that when following up at Brighton (6f) 6 days later. 4 lb rise fair and looks sure to go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 13023/0552 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f17y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/0625 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 1291/0755 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13323/0755 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 6f18y Goo 128 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 67 par3/085OR 676 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 5f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 65 par17/086OR 656 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 5f215y Goo 141 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 65 par23/086OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Brighton61st2nd−1
2026-08-17Catterick61st2nd−1
2026-08-03Nottingham54th4th0
2026-07-23Southwell54th4th0
2026-07-01Bath511th11th0
2026-06-12Chester24th0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0523/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
12/06/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
01/07/202611th7/163%0%-0.63
23/07/20264th25/10%73%+0.73
03/08/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
17/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
23/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11