Connie's Rose

7yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 60

Ffos Las · betting.bet Play Champion Tipster Handicap · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

77%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C5.3

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Chepstow	5	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-29	Chepstow	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-18	Chepstow	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-31	Bath	6	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-16	Chepstow	5	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-06-30	Salisbury	4	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength41%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/05/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	89%	+0.13
06/06/2026	7th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
15/06/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
30/06/2026	4th	11/2	71%	40%	-0.31
16/07/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
31/07/2026	4th	5/2	87%	25%	-0.62
18/08/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	78%	+0.04
29/08/2026	3rd	17/2	55%	71%	+0.16
31/08/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	67%	-0.20