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Happier

6yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 60

Ffos Las · betting.bet Play Champion Tipster Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Notched back-to-back wins at Wolverhampton and this course (5f) in recent months and got back on the scoreboard in 12-runner handicap at Kempton (6f, 2/1) under this rider 7 days ago. Looks well in under a 5 lb penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 01/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 130 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 55 par1/066OR 556 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f110y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 52 · 5f21y GF 130 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 52 par29/066OR 526 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 50 · 6f213y Goo 151 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 48 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par31/076OR 486 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 55 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 55 par18/086OR 555 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 5f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 60 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 60 par14/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton61st1st0
2026-08-31Ripon54th3rd+1
2026-08-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-12Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-07-21Salisbury67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0621/0718/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/202611th66/10%0%0.00
15/06/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
29/06/20269th17/255%33%-0.22
21/07/20267th9/153%33%-0.19
31/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
12/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
18/08/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
31/08/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
14/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11