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6

Bay Of Myths

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 78

Ffos Las · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified heavy support starting out at Chelmsford in March. Never seemed happy at Redcar the following month but stayed on late when fourth of 7 in handicap at Thirsk (1½m, good to soft) 16 days ago and remains open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Chelmsford City 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS7/0333 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/0434 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 79 par5/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk44th4th0
2026-04-20Redcar33rd2nd+1
2026-03-07Chelmsford City31st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0320/045/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +21.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/03/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
20/04/20263rd85/4089%33%-0.55
05/09/20264th20/10%50%+0.50