9
Captain Cairney
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 67
Ffos Las · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 6 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |