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5

Flash Bardot

6yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 72

Ffos Las · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since April 2024 but she had made a positive start for her new yard this year, placing twice over hurdles. May have needed the outing back in this sphere when seventh at Haydock latest and can't be ruled out here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 09/11/2024 · Pos 10th of 23 · OR 88 · 1m3f197y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/11/2024 · OR 88 par9/112OR 883 @ Kempton 03/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m3f23y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2025 · OR 85 par13/073OR 854 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m3f99y Sft 137 · below its mark01/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 80 · 1m4f Goo 137 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 80 par19/094OR 804 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m6f GS 134 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Haydock 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m7f144y Goo 1584/0444 @ Fontwell 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f162y Goo 1585 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m3f140y Hvy 141 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 74 par4/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock57th8th−1
2026-05-14Fontwell42nd2nd0
2026-04-04Haydock43rd3rd0
2025-10-08Nottingham45th5th0
2025-09-19Newbury47th7th0
2025-09-01Windsor46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/111/094/044/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength2%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/202410th20/10%59%+0.59
03/07/202513th20/10%8%+0.08
13/07/202510th80/10%10%+0.10
01/09/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
19/09/20257th10/147%14%-0.33
08/10/20255th28/10%50%+0.50
04/04/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67
14/05/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
04/09/20267th6/168%45%-0.23