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Sonic Pioneer

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 79

Ffos Las · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly-useful performer on Flat for Jack Morland who has scored twice over hurdles for current yard, latest at Ludlow (2m) in April. Fairly treated back in this sphere and warrants respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 06/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark06/05/2025 · OR 67 par6/055OR 675 @ Haydock 23/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 7f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Wolverhampton 23/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m142y Std 148 · beat its mark23/06/2025 · OR 70 par23/065OR 705 @ Epsom Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 1m113y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 1m1f Gd 135 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 69 par1/095OR 695 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 1m1f207y Sft 135 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Pontefract 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m4f5y GS 141 · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 70 par25/095OR 704 @ Kempton 24/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 1544 @ Ludlow 22/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 116 · 1m7f169y Gd 155 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 116 par22/044OR 116projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22Ludlow41st1st0
2026-01-24Cheltenham1+4
2025-12-27Chepstow1+4
2025-11-24Kempton41st1st0
2025-09-25Pontefract52nd3rd−1
2025-09-17Beverley51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0515/0825/0922/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/05/20252nd28/10%90%+0.90
23/05/20252nd15/261%86%+0.25
23/06/202510th4/179%25%-0.54
15/08/20252nd15/261%75%+0.14
01/09/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
17/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
25/09/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
24/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
22/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47