3
Aerial Silk
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 69
Ffos Las · Red Lion Llandyfaelog Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 80y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Haydock | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |