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9

Arvana Belle

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 47

Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Posted best effort of this year when close second at this course (7f) last month and shaped better than the distance beaten when fifth of 11 in handicap at Bath (1m, good to firm) 9 days ago, finishing with running left. Likely player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Brighton 29/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 6f210y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 52 par29/096OR 526 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Fm 128 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f12y Goo 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 52 par18/056OR 526 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 50 · 5f215y Gd 130 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 48 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 48 par14/076OR 486 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 45 · 6f210y Goo 121 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 45 par7/086OR 456 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 45 · 7f80y Gd 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 47 par12/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath65th5th0
2026-08-21Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-07-25Salisbury65th5th0
2026-07-14Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-06-09Brighton67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/099/067/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20253rd3/184%60%-0.24
27/04/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
18/05/202611th16/116%9%-0.07
09/06/20267th9/153%0%-0.53
14/07/20263rd11/142%60%+0.18
25/07/20265th17/255%20%-0.35
07/08/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
21/08/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
12/09/20265th13/266%60%-0.06