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8

Belltony

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45

Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Offered little in a trio of novice events and no upturn dropped into classified company over 7f here in June. Others make much more appeal. 1 lb out of the handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS30/0144 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS23/0244 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m142y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0346 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 50 · 7f16y Gd 125 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 50 par15/066OR 506 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 47 · 7f80y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 47 par30/066OR 47projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Ffos Las65th5th0
2026-06-15Chepstow65th5th0
2026-03-16Wolverhampton46th4th+2
2026-02-23Wolverhampton44th2nd+2
2026-01-30Wolverhampton47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0123/0216/0315/0630/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20267th66/10%0%0.00
23/02/20264th125/10%57%+0.57
16/03/20266th300/10%0%0.00
15/06/20265th50/10%33%+0.33
30/06/20265th12/137%43%+0.06