2
Equion
8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53
Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 70% | -0.22 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 19/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |