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6

Grimese's Special

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 52

Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★ Timeform

Commentary

Surprise 66/1 winner of a seller over 7f at Salisbury on second start last year, however, she's shown very little in handicaps since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chepstow 02/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f16y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS2/0954 @ Salisbury 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f213y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 67 · 1m13y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 67 par3/105OR 674 @ Wolverhampton 26/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 65 · 7f36y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 63 · 6f213y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 63 par23/055OR 636 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 56 · 7f80y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 56 par28/085OR 565 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 52 par13/095OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath55th4th+1
2026-08-28Ffos Las55th4th+1
2026-06-09Salisbury68th8th0
2026-05-23Salisbury513th12th+1
2025-12-26Wolverhampton45th3rd+2
2025-10-03Southwell56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0926/1228/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20257th50/10%14%+0.14
12/09/20251st66/10%100%+1.00
03/10/20256th25/10%0%0.00
26/12/20255th50/10%0%0.00
23/05/202613th50/10%8%+0.08
09/06/20268th50/10%30%+0.30
28/08/20265th125/10%43%+0.43
13/09/20265th80/10%56%+0.56