Leia Antilles
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 45
Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-08-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 04/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |