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Scarfo

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55

Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 1) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Excelled himself, from 13 lb out of the handicap, when third of 16 at Chepstow (1m, soft) 21 days ago. Raised 5 lb since but is not taken lightly here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m Gd 142 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 45 par4/056OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 45 · 1m14y Sft 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 45 par6/066OR 456 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m14y Gd 128 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 131 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 48 par23/066OR 486 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 48 · 7f16y GF 128 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 131 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 49 par9/086OR 496 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m14y GF 119 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 par2 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 48 · 1m14y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par31/082OR 48projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Chepstow23rd-2th+4
2026-08-18Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-08-09Chepstow66th6th0
2026-07-16Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-06-23Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-06-15Chepstow63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0515/069/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
11/05/20269th80/10%33%+0.33
06/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
15/06/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
23/06/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
16/07/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
09/08/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
18/08/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
31/08/20263rd40/10%87%+0.87