3
Ajrad
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51
Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 2) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Chepstow | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |