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2

Wellwhatshappenin

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 52

Ffos Las · RHN Travel Handicap (Div 2) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 in good form but has failed to trouble the judge this campaign, running respectably back on all-weather having left Eddie & Patrick Harty when fourth of 10 at Kempton (1m) last week. First-time tongue tie goes on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Naas 05/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m2f84y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 58 par5/0758OR 58BHA56 @ Navan 13/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 56 · 1m2f40y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2025 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 7f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 54 par17/1054OR 54BHA59 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 1m Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 59 par5/1259OR 59BHA60 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 142 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 58 · 7f42y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 58 par6/0858OR 58BHA56 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 52 par14/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton64th4th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA568th8th+0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA5812th12th+0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA6013th13th0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA593rd3rd+0
2025-11-05DundalkBHA592nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/075/116/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20258th40/10%42%+0.42
13/07/20254th250/10%0%0.00
17/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
05/11/20252nd5/174%92%+0.19
05/12/20253rd85/4089%85%-0.04
20/03/202613th9/276%8%-0.69
06/08/202612th28/10%31%+0.31
25/08/20268th22/10%50%+0.50
14/09/20264th3/184%67%-0.18