IvyArcIvyArc
6

Adrian

9yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 50

Ffos Las · Dandara Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who hasn't won for over 5 years but arrives in good order, third of 10 at this course (1½m, good) last month. Record on the level for these connections now 0-21 so will most likely find a few too strong once again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ffos Las 22/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m6f GS 125 · beat its mark22/06/2025 · OR 50 par22/066OR 506 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 50 · 2m GS 121 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Ffos Las 16/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 50 · 2m Goo 121 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 50 par16/076OR 506 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 49 · 2m GS 133 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 06/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 47 · 2m120y Std 132 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 47 par6/106OR 474 @ Ffos Las 19/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m7f182y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 46 · 1m7f169y Std 124 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 46 par27/046OR 466 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 45 · 1m3f209y GS 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m3f209y Gd 133 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 50 par21/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-06-04Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-04-27Lingfield66th6th0
2025-11-19Ffos Las43rd1st+2
2025-10-06Wolverhampton68th8th0
2025-08-28Ffos Las610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0628/0827/0421/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20254th13/266%40%-0.26
30/06/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
16/07/20253rd11/893%33%-0.59
28/08/202510th8/158%10%-0.48
06/10/20258th18/15%30%+0.25
19/11/20253rd25/10%33%+0.33
27/04/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
04/06/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
21/08/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51