3
Calaxy
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 55
Ffos Las · Dandara Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Kempton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kempton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/04/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 30/07/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |