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City Escape

9yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 52

Ffos Las · Dandara Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual scorer in 2025 who bounced back to winning ways when taking 10-runner classified event over C&D (good) last month. Didn't get going in time back on softer ground at Chepstow 8 days later so percentage call is to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m2f GS 136 · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 56 par30/066OR 566 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m2f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 54 par9/056OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m1f104y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 53 · 1m2f37y Gd 128 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 53 par5/066OR 536 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m2f GF 130 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m2f GF 131 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 49 par24/076OR 496 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 52 · 1m2f Goo 136 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 52 par29/086OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Chepstow64th4th0
2026-08-21Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-07-24Chepstow66th6th0
2026-07-04Leicester65th5th0
2026-06-05Bath65th5th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/062/0624/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20257th14/126%25%-0.01
04/10/20253rd16/116%82%+0.66
09/05/20266th25/10%50%+0.50
02/06/20266th28/10%50%+0.50
05/06/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
04/07/20265th18/15%56%+0.50
24/07/20266th9/276%38%-0.39
21/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
29/08/20264th7/163%40%-0.23