IvyArcIvyArc
9

Mick The Hat

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 50

Ffos Las · Dandara Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort when third on handicap debut here (1½m, soft) in June. A pair of next-time-out winners emerged from that race but he's offered little all 3 starts since. First run for yard after leaving Ralph Beckett (5,000 gns) and first-time cheekpieces are reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS17/0344 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS8/0444 @ Epsom Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m113y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS28/0445 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 1m3f209y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 55 par4/065OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 54 par16/066OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 1m5f219y Std 123 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 54 par7/076OR 546 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 52 · 1m6f GF 119 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 52 par25/076OR 52projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-06-16Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-06-04Ffos Las53rd2nd+1
2026-04-28Epsom Downs46th4th+2
2026-04-08Kempton48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/034/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -13.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
08/04/20268th80/10%22%+0.22
28/04/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
04/06/20263rd13/266%75%+0.09
16/06/20268th2/189%22%-0.67
07/07/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
25/07/20263rd8/158%33%-0.25