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2

Rogers Dream

5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 57

Ffos Las · Dandara Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Switch to front-running tactics produced an upturn in fortunes, winning a classified stakes by a wide margin at Ripon (1¼m, soft) 3 weeks ago. Clearly improved a good deal and not without hope back in handicap company if able to lead again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 19/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0655 @ Redcar 21/07/2024 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Thirsk 09/08/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 41 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/08/2024 · OR 41 par9/086OR 416 @ Carlisle 21/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f195y Gd 121 · beat its mark21/08/2024 · OR 45 par6 @ Musselburgh 14/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 45 · 7f15y GS 119 · beat its mark14/10/2024 · OR 45 par14/106OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 41 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 41 par6 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 46 · 1m100y Goo 126 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 46 par16/066OR 466 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 46 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 46 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 46 par31/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon61st1st0
2026-07-31Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-06-16Beverley64th4th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton64th4th0
2024-10-14Musselburgh68th8th0
2024-08-21Carlisle64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0621/0816/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20247th50/10%45%+0.45
21/07/20245th66/10%43%+0.43
09/08/20248th25/10%30%+0.30
21/08/20244th40/10%63%+0.63
14/10/20248th40/10%22%+0.22
02/06/20264th17/255%73%+0.17
16/06/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
31/07/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04
31/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14