5
Almez
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |