4
Love Coin
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |