2
Reign It In
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |