Resilient Hero
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |