Apollonia Vitelli
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-08-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 18/05/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 05/06/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |