3
Eastern Star
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/02/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |