2
Itwillbefun
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |