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6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength41%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Saratoga	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-28	Finger Lakes	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-06-25	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-05-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-05-17	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-08	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength68%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/06/2025	4th	11/2	71%	63%	-0.09
10/07/2025	4th	7/1	63%	57%	-0.06
02/04/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
08/05/2026	5th	5/1	74%	43%	-0.31
17/05/2026	4th	9/1	53%	40%	-0.13
24/05/2026	5th	20/1	0%	20%	+0.20
25/06/2026	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
28/07/2026	7th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
06/08/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11