4
Spun Size
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength49%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |