6
Celeslia
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |