8
Lively Pal
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 61
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 07/09/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |