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Annagenda
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Niagara Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +12.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |