5
Galileans Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Niagara Stakes · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |