4
My First Dinah
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Niagara Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-01-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |