2
Rubies For Olivia
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Niagara Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |