3
Sugartown Sweetie
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Niagara Stakes · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |