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4

Kings Dancer

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 83

Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 71 par6/10C6OR 71C6 @ Finger Lakes 03/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 10/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 81 · 6f 114 · below its mark10/11/2025 · OR 81 par10/11C5OR 81C6 @ Finger Lakes 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 23/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 73 par23/06C5OR 73C5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 74 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 74 par9/08C8OR 74C5 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 120 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 79 · 5f110y 121 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 79 par14/09C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Finger Lakes?3rd4th−1
2026-08-25Finger Lakes?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-09Saratoga?10th14th−3
2026-07-25Saratoga?10th11th−1
2026-06-23Finger Lakes?7th8th−1
2026-06-01Finger Lakes?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/101/069/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
03/11/20252nd6/492%88%-0.05
10/11/20256th10/382%17%-0.66
01/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
23/06/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
25/07/202610th50/10%0%0.00
09/08/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
25/08/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
14/09/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27