6
Lord King
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |