1
Muscle Shoals
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |