8
Savage State
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength5%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |